Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals is a type of over/under bet, whereby a bettor is betting that the total number of goals scored in a football match will be under 2.5.

For an under 2.5 goals bet to win, a match must finish with two goals or less.

The opposite of an under 2.5 goals bet is an over 2.5 goals bet, whereby a match must finish with three goals or more for a bet to be successful.

The term 'under 2.5 goals' is used as opposed to 'under 2 goals' to avoid confusion, as there could be ambiguity if a match finishes with exactly two goals. Whereas with under 2.5 goals, it is clear that if a match finishes with exactly two goals, the bet has been successful.

Is under 2.5 goals a good bet to place?

An under 2.5 goals bet is popular as it does not require a bettor to predict the winner in a fixture. The selection can be successful regardless of the result: it just requires a certain number of goals to be scored.

Additionally, an under 2.5 goals bet is different from 1x2 related sporting bets, as there are only two outcomes: yes or no. When betting on the full time result in a match, there are three possible outcomes: win, lose or draw. With an over/under bet, a bettor has a 50% chance of being successful, as opposed to just 33.3% when betting on the result.

Factors to consider before placing an under 2.5 goals bet

There are a multitude of factors to consider before placing an under 2.5 goals bet that could influence the outcome.

Previous goalscoring record

It's a relatively simple one, but a bit of research into the goalscoring and conceding statistics of both sides is a good place to start prior to placing an under 2.5 goals bet.

How many goals per game have both sides been scoring on average this season? How many goals per game have both teams been conceding this season? How many goals per game have they been involved in across their last five matches?

Team news

Injuries and team news can play a part in whether there are under 2.5 goals in a fixture. For example, if a team has been involved in an average of 2.60 goals per game this season, but their top goal scorer is injured, this increases the likelihood of under 2.5 goals being scored.

Similarly, if a team has been involved in an average of just 1.40 goals per game this season, but have suffered an injury crisis to their defence, then under 2.5 goals may be less likely than usual.

Home or away

It is worth taking into account how the two sides' goalscoring and conceding records differ depending on whether they are playing home or away.

If a team is scoring for fun at home, but struggles in front of goal on the road, then backing them to be involved in under 2.5 goals in an away match is a more sensible bet than backing them to be involved in under 2.5 goals in a home fixture.

The magnitude of the fixture

High flying Real Madrid could have been cagey in front of goal in their last two fixtures; but their last two fixtures may have been against fellow high flying opposition. They may not be as cagey against sides in the lower reaches of La Liga.

Consider sides' previous goalscoring records against teams in different positions in the league table when placing an under 2.5 goals bet.

How to use under 2.5 goals in betting

Research is key when placing an under 2.5 goals bet. Instead of studying form as you would with a result based bet, study the goals for and against column in the league table.

When placing an under 2.5 goals bet, using implied probability is a great way to find under/over bets with value.

For example, if bookmakers are offering odds of 2.00 for under 2.5 goals in a clash between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, this would have an implied probability of 50%. However, if you believe that the likelihood of under 2.5 goals is closer to 65% - perhaps due to the form of the Valencia strike force, injuries to Atletico's strike force or Atletico's strong defensive record at home - then this would be an under 2.5 goals bet worth placing.

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