Expected goals

Expected goals (xG) is used in football to predict how many goals a team is expected to score in a game. This is calculated using several factors and it is measured on a scale of 0-1 for each chance.

Such factors that are taken into account when giving an xG for a chance are:

  • Distance from goal

  • Angle of the shot

  • Strong foot, weak foot or a header

  • Open-play or a set piece

  • Chance creation

  • The shot - was it a rebound or a direct shot on target without a deflection

All of this data is put into an algorithm to give a value for each shot. The higher the value, the more likely that chance is to result in a goal.

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